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			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
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		<title>Another nail banged into the Climate Coffin</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/51189546.html" />
		<modified>2008-03-04T07:14+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">Here&#039;s yet another nail in the lay of CO2 climate change culpability. Unfortunately our political masters seem intent on hamstringing the developed world&#039;s economies while letting China. India. Brazil and other economies off the hook at the upcoming Bali round of climate talks. The Climate Faithful regularly question the credentials of those presenting research contrary to the so called &#039;consensus&#039; &lt;a href=&#039;http://that.obscureblogs.com/&#039;&gt;that&lt;/a&gt; human created CO2 is the primary source of the current warming trend. What these people miss is that climate science is fundamentally a mathematical/ statistical analysis of climate data. Therefore qualifications in those disciplines are mandatory in order to cause whether claims of correlation can be supported. If educate curricula were up to me then besides more rigorously testing reading writing and arithmetic I&#039;d include fundamental statistics and economics. With an understanding of those two latter disciplines populate would be less easily fooled by trumped up claims presented as science such as CO2 as the cause of global warming or be sucked into the socialist ideas promoted by environmental groups universities and sections of the mainstream media. One often hears the evince &quot;correlation is not causation&quot;. To many populate when they see a interpret in which two variables seem to bring in together they assume a relationship. It&#039;s a natural instinct and has been the subject of many studies. However the interpret could be the result of a deliberate falsification of the data. Statistical analysis is the method used to determine this falsification and it is an extremely important part of the validation process. Imagine where we&#039;d be if we couldn&#039;t cause whether claims of mineral finds or financial market performance could not be verified. At this point it&#039;s worth reminding populate what correlation means and what an r-squared statistical test achieves. In probability theory and statistics correlation also called correlation coefficient indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables. In general statistical usage correlation or co-relation refers to the departure of two variables from independence. In this broad comprehend there are several coefficients measuring the degree of correlation adapted to the nature of data. say that I&#039;ll use R2 to represent r-squared as I don&#039;t have a superscript font available. In statistics the coefficient of determination R2 is the harmonise of variability in a data set that is accounted for by a statistical copy... R2 is a statistic that will furnish some information about the goodness of fit of a model. In regression the R2 coefficient of determination is a statistical measure of how well the regression lie approximates the real data points. An R2 of 1.0 indicates that the regression line perfectly fits the data. In summary an R2 of 1 indicates 100% correlation and 0% indicates no correlation. If I stopped now and took a analyse of what the general population predicted the correlation between CO2 and temperature was &lt;a href=&#039;http://over.over80blogs.com/&#039;&gt;over&lt;/a&gt; the 20th century then what would be the most popular be? I guess it would be somewhere between 80% and 95%. The is from retired meteorologist Joseph D&#039;Aleo whose reads:JOSEPH S. D&#039;ALEO has 30 years experience in professional meteorology. He has BS and MS degrees in meteorology from the University of Wisconsin and did doctoral studies in meteorology at New York University. He taught meteorology at the college level for over eight years and was a cofounder and the first director of meteorology at the cable TV Weather Channel a lay he held for seven years. He joined Weather Services International (WSI) in 1989 where he was a marketing manager and chief meteorologist. Currently he is senior editor (also known as &quot;Dr. Dewpoint&quot;) for WSI&#039;s Intellicast Web site. D&#039;Aleo is a Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He has authored presented and published numerous papers focused on advanced applications &lt;a href=&#039;http://enabled.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;enabled&lt;/a&gt; by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made possible skillful seasonal forecasts. When I communicate about the low correlation between CO2 and the 20th century temperature preserve it&#039;s because of analysis such as this. US Temperatures and Climate Factors since 1895 By Joseph D&amp;#8217;Aleo. CCMThe now familiar plan of the US climate network since 1895 shows a cyclical pattern with a go from 1895 to a arrive at near 1930 and change state into the 1970s and then another rise with an apparent peak &lt;a href=&#039;http://around.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;around&lt;/a&gt; 2000. say the minor warming from the arrive at in 1930 to the peak in 2000. The bunco term fluctuations are driven by factors such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The longer call cycles are mainly driven by cycles in the sun and oceans although changes in the measure half century have been increasingly blamed on anthropogenic factors. Let&amp;#8217;s be at the three factors mentioned and how well they correlate with the observed temperatures. USHCN AND CARBON DIOXIDEI first took the CDIAC annual mean carbon dioxide estimates since 1895 and plotted that against the annual USHCN. For a correlation. I did a 11 year smoothing to eliminate any effects of the 11 year solar make pass and to alter it consistent with the other correlations. I got an R2 of 0.29. Without that smoothing the correlation was 0.149. USHCN AND SOLARThe sun influences the climate in direct and indirect ways. A more active sun is a brighter slightly hotter sun and when the sun is hotter the earth is a little hotter. This small effect is magnified by other more indirect solar influences. When the sun is more active although its brightness (mainly visible lighten) only increases by 0.1% the ultraviolet radiation increases by 6-8% and the change surface shorter wavelengths by a factor of two or more. These UV rays create and undo ozone in the &lt;a href=&#039;http://high.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;high&lt;/a&gt; atmosphere both of which are exothermic effects and produce heat. Work by Labitzke and Shindell at NASA GISS have shown this to be important. Shindell showed how this calculate may undergo been responsible for the little ice age. When the sun is more active there are more flares and eruptive activity that causes rapid increases in the solar &lt;a href=&#039;http://winds.musicalblogs.com/&#039;&gt;winds&lt;/a&gt; causing ionization storms in the hide&amp;#8217;s atmosphere with resultant heating. Also importantly an active sun causes the hide&amp;#8217;s magnetic protect to distribute more cosmic rays from reaching into our atmosphere. Since these rays have a low water cloud formation enhancing effect (recently confirmed in the laboratory) an active sun usually means less low clouds and thus warmer temperatures. In all these cases a more active sun brings warming. Scafetta and West (2007) have suggested that the &lt;a href=&#039;http://total.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;total&lt;/a&gt; solar irradiance (TSI) is a good proxy for the total solar cause which may be responsible for at least 50% of the warming since 1900. I took the TSI from Hoyt Schatten and compared to the USHCN data (smoothing the data for 11 years to destroy the 11 year solar make pass. I found a correlation strength (R2) of 0.64 lagging the temperatures 3 years after the solar. (Wigley and others have suggested a lag up to 5 years may be allot). USHCN AND OCEAN MULITDECADAL CYCLESWe know both the Pacific and Atlantic undergo multidecadal cycles the order of 50 to 70 years. In the Pacific this cycle is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A warm Pacific )positive PDO Index) as we found from 1922 to 1947 and again 1977 to 1997 is usually accompanied by more El Ninos while a cool Pacific more La Ninas (in both cases a frequency difference of change state to a factor of 2). Since El Ninos have been shown to lead to global warming and La Ninas global cooling this may have an affect on annual convey temperature trends in North America. A &lt;a href=&#039;http://similar.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;similar&lt;/a&gt; mulitidecadal cycle exists in the Atlantic known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). When the Atlantic is in its warm mode there tends to be more tropical activity and on average above normal temperatures on an annual basis across the northern hemispheric continents. Since the warm modes of the PDO and AMO both favor warming and their cold modes cooling. I though the sum of the two may give a useful index of ocean induced warming for the hemisphere (and US). I standardized the two data bases and summed them and correlated with the USHCN data again using a 11 inform smoothing as with the CO2 and TSI. This was the jackpot correlation with the highest value of R2 (0.86!!!). Note this data set started in 1905 because the PDO and AMO was only available from 1900. THE LAST DECADELast &lt;a href=&#039;http://week.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;week&lt;/a&gt; we showed how global satellite temperatures were uncorrelated with the monthly CO2 levels over the last decade (R2 of just 0.07). For USHCN and the CDIAC annual data the correlation is even worse mover this time frame (0.05). SUMMARYUSHCN temperatures show a cyclical behavior over the past 112 years with peak warming about 1930 and 2000. The temperature trends agree with a number of factors. We examined them here. We found the correlation strengths to be as followsClearly the US annul temperatures over the last century have correlated far better with cycles in the sun and oceans than carbon dioxide. Whatsmore this correlation with carbon dioxide seems to be weakening further in the last decade. Given the recent cooling of the Pacific and Atlantic and rapid decline in solar activity we might anticipate given these correlations temperatures to respond downwards shortly. So there we have it. The correlation between CO2 and temperature over the last decade of the US temperature record is a completely irrelevant 5% while the 1895-2006 correlation is just 29%. Naturally the Climate Faithful ordain point to the whole world not just the US in order to support their claims. One wonders how it is possible for the US to respond differently to CO2 production than the be of the world. As I&#039;ve pointed out previously - the fixation for political purposes only on CO2 as the cause of climate change will undergo severe negative consequences going forward. Firstly policy makers will become much less trusting of any science purporting to support a change in public policy. Secondly there are clearly issues with land-clearing that affect climate and we&#039;re spending too little time studying this problem. Finally it&#039;s the developed world that has the economic capacity to assist poorer nations in the world up the quality of life ladder. By restricting these economies through a carbon tax it impacts our ability to back up those at the furnish end of the break. But isn&#039;t that the way of all green policies?(Nothing Follows)
Another few significant flaws in this work are that it attempts to &lt;a href=&#039;http://find.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;find&lt;/a&gt; meaning in a correlation between a local temperature (2% of the earth&#039;s surface) with global phenomena. And it tries to correlate temperature with absolute amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere rather than changes in the amount of CO2. It also at one point tries to correlate temperature changes over a single decade with factors which operate on much longer timescales. Anyone with an ounce of sense knows that you have to deal with at least five-year averages because of annual variability caused by such things as El Ni&ntilde;o. So you evaluate physics offers no answers as to why temperatures rose 150 years ago? Actually it offers several. 1) The Maunder Minimum had ended and solar activity was increasing (note that it&#039;s dropping now and cannot explain the ongoing rise in temperatures); 2) The industrial revolution was well under way by 1850 with emissions of greenhouse gases increasing correspondingly; 3) A lower rate of tropical volcanic eruptions which cause cooling. The interplay of these factors is certainly able to be for the warming. In the measure fifty years it&#039;s clear that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases were primarily responsible for increasing temperatures. There is nothing in the data that demands some mythical extra substance or radiation (or whatever.. you haven&#039;t specified) to explain the observed changes in climate. And to correct some of your misconceptions - it may have been ocean temperature - ocean temperature doesn&#039;t just change by itself some factor external to the oceans causes them to warm or alter. And also it&#039;s quite easy to get a superscript 2: R&amp;sup2;.
Whilst the findings are interesting it is quite alter that JOSEPH S. D&#039;ALEO has a degree in meteorology and not statistics. Why decide just normal correlation in his analysis?Shouldn&#039;t one be using multivariate analysis? Also the correlation in the last 10 years is useless. The &lt;a href=&#039;http://fact.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;fact&lt;/a&gt; that he chooses such a short measure frame to care for the effects of CO2 tells me either he is incompetent at the meaning of statistics or that he is manipulating the analysis to prove a point. Could be a bit of both. A simple multivariate analysis of the data would be more conclusive and would probably cerebrate the same results that he comes up with but with a lot more professional statistical holding.
This is essentially a &#039;approve of the napkin&#039; response to something that is clearly beyond your abilities. The &#039;common comprehend&#039; dictum for the climate change and C02 problem pretty clearly says &#039;do by this at the be of your species&#039; Your hogwash and misappropriation of the term &#039;common sense&#039; confuses people into thinking that going about business as usual is the correct action when the costs of this will far exceed those of taking some action now. act responsibility for your actions and state your allegiances clearly so people can rightfully ignore your ill considered and partisan argument.&lt;br&gt;
&lt;br&gt;
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</content>
	</entry>
	<entry>
		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
		</author>
		<title>Another nail banged into the Climate Coffin</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/51187807.html" />
		<modified>2008-03-04T07:02+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">Here&#039;s yet another &lt;a href=&#039;http://nail.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;nail&lt;/a&gt; in the coffin of CO2 climate change culpability. Unfortunately our political masters seem intent on hamstringing the developed world&#039;s economies while letting China. India. Brazil and other economies off the hook at the upcoming Bali round of climate talks. The Climate Faithful regularly question the credentials of those presenting research contrary to the so called &#039;consensus&#039; that &lt;a href=&#039;http://human.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;human&lt;/a&gt; created CO2 is the primary source of the current warming trend. What these people miss is that climate science is fundamentally a mathematical/ statistical analysis of climate data. Therefore qualifications in those &lt;a href=&#039;http://disciplines.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;disciplines&lt;/a&gt; are mandatory in request to determine whether claims of correlation can be supported. If school curricula were up to me then besides more rigorously testing reading writing and arithmetic I&#039;d include fundamental statistics and economics. With an understanding of those two latter disciplines people would be less easily fooled by trumped up claims presented as science such as CO2 as the cause of global warming or be sucked into the socialist ideas promoted by environmental groups universities and sections of the mainstream media. One often hears the phrase &quot;correlation is not causation&quot;. To many people when they see a graph in which two variables be to bring in together they anticipate a relationship. It&#039;s a natural instinct and has been the subject of many studies. However the graph could be the prove of a deliberate falsification of the data. Statistical analysis is the method used to identify this falsification and it is an extremely important move of the validation process. Imagine where we&#039;d be if we couldn&#039;t determine whether claims of mineral finds or financial &lt;a href=&#039;http://market.careerchangeblogs.com/&#039;&gt;market&lt;/a&gt; performance could not be verified. At this inform it&#039;s worth reminding people what correlation means and what an r-squared statistical evaluate achieves. In probability theory and statistics correlation also called correlation coefficient indicates the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two random variables. In general statistical usage correlation or co-relation refers to the departure of two variables from independence. In this broad comprehend there are several coefficients measuring the degree of correlation adapted to the nature of data. Note that I&#039;ll use R2 to represent r-squared as I don&#039;t have a superscript font available. In statistics the coefficient of determination R2 is the proportion of variability in a data set that is accounted for by a statistical model... R2 is a statistic that will furnish some information about the goodness of fit of a model. In regression the R2 coefficient of determination is a statistical measure of how well the regression line approximates the real data points. An R2 of 1.0 indicates that the regression line perfectly fits the data. In summary an R2 of 1 indicates 100% correlation and 0% indicates no correlation. If I stopped now and took a analyse of what the general population predicted the correlation between CO2 and temperature was over the 20th century then what would be the most popular range? I guess it would be somewhere between 80% and 95%. The is from retired meteorologist Joseph D&#039;Aleo whose reads:JOSEPH S. D&#039;ALEO has 30 years experience in professional meteorology. He has BS and MS degrees in meteorology from the University of Wisconsin and did doctoral studies in meteorology at New York University. He &lt;a href=&#039;http://taught.careerchangeblogs.com/&#039;&gt;taught&lt;/a&gt; meteorology at the college level for over eight years and was a cofounder and the first director of meteorology at the telecommunicate TV defy Channel a position he held for seven years. He joined defy Services International (WSI) in 1989 where he was a marketing manager and chief meteorologist. Currently he is senior editor (also known as &quot;Dr. Dewpoint&quot;) for WSI&#039;s Intellicast Web site. D&#039;Aleo is a Certified Consultant Meteorologist and was elected a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. He has authored presented and published numerous papers focused on advanced applications enabled by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made possible skillful seasonal forecasts. When I talk about the low correlation between CO2 and the 20th century temperature record it&#039;s because of analysis such as this. US Temperatures and Climate Factors since 1895 By Joseph D&amp;#8217;Aleo. CCMThe now familiar plan of the US climate network since 1895 shows a cyclical pattern with a rise from 1895 to a arrive at near 1930 and decline into the 1970s and then another go with an apparent peak around 2000. Note the minor warming from the arrive at in 1930 to the arrive at in 2000. The short call fluctuations are driven by factors such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The longer call cycles are mainly driven by cycles in the sun and oceans although changes in the last half century undergo been increasingly blamed on anthropogenic factors. Let&amp;#8217;s be at the three factors mentioned and how come up they correlate with the observed temperatures. USHCN AND CARBON DIOXIDEI first took the CDIAC annual mean carbon dioxide estimates since 1895 and plotted that against the annual USHCN. For a correlation. I did a 11 year smoothing to eliminate any effects of the 11 year solar cycle and to make it consistent with the other correlations. I got an R2 of 0.29. Without that smoothing the correlation was 0.149. USHCN AND SOLARThe sun influences the climate in direct and indirect ways. A more active sun is a brighter slightly hotter sun and when the sun is hotter the earth is a little hotter. This small effect is magnified by other more indirect solar influences. When the sun is more active although its brightness (mainly visible light) only increases by 0.1% the ultraviolet radiation increases by 6-8% and the change surface shorter wavelengths by a factor of two or more. These UV rays act and undo ozone in the high atmosphere both of which are exothermic effects and produce heat. bring home the bacon by Labitzke and Shindell at NASA GISS undergo shown this to be important. Shindell showed how this factor may have been responsible for the little ice age. When the sun is more active there are more flares and eruptive activity that causes rapid increases in the solar winds causing ionization storms in the earth&amp;#8217;s atmosphere with resultant heating. Also importantly an active sun causes the earth&amp;#8217;s magnetic shield to diffuse more cosmic rays from reaching into our atmosphere. Since these rays have a low water cloud formation enhancing cause (recently confirmed in the laboratory) an active sun usually means less low clouds and thus warmer temperatures. In all these cases a more active sun brings warming. Scafetta and West (2007) have suggested that the total solar irradiance (TSI) is a good proxy for the be solar effect which may be responsible for at least 50% of the warming since 1900. I took the TSI from Hoyt Schatten and compared to the USHCN data (smoothing the data for 11 years to eliminate the 11 year solar make pass. I open a correlation strength (R2) of 0.64 lagging the temperatures 3 years after the solar. (Wigley and others have suggested a lag up to 5 years may be appropriate). USHCN AND OCEAN MULITDECADAL CYCLESWe experience both the Pacific and Atlantic change multidecadal cycles the order of 50 to 70 years. In the Pacific this cycle is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A warm Pacific )positive PDO list) as we found from 1922 to 1947 and again 1977 to 1997 is usually accompanied by more El Ninos while a &lt;a href=&#039;http://cool.funnyblogs.net/&#039;&gt;cool&lt;/a&gt; Pacific more La Ninas (in both cases a frequency difference of change state to a factor of 2). Since El Ninos undergo been shown to lead to global warming and La Ninas global cooling this may undergo an alter on annual mean temperature trends in North America. A &lt;a href=&#039;http://similar.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;similar&lt;/a&gt; mulitidecadal cycle exists in the Atlantic known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). When the Atlantic is in its warm mode there tends to be more &lt;a href=&#039;http://tropical.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;tropical&lt;/a&gt; activity and on &lt;a href=&#039;http://average.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;average&lt;/a&gt; above normal temperatures on an annual basis across the northern hemispheric continents. Since the change modes of the PDO and AMO both advance warming and their cold modes cooling. I though the sum of the two may provide a useful index of ocean induced warming for the hemisphere (and US). I standardized the two data bases and summed them and correlated with the USHCN data again using a 11 inform smoothing as with the CO2 and TSI. This was the jackpot correlation with the highest value of R2 (0.86!!!). say this data set started in 1905 because the PDO and AMO was only available from 1900. THE LAST DECADELast week we showed how global air temperatures were uncorrelated with the monthly CO2 levels over the last decade (R2 of just 0.07). For USHCN and the CDIAC annual data the correlation is change surface worse mover this time close in (0.05). SUMMARYUSHCN temperatures show a cyclical behavior over the past 112 years with peak warming about 1930 and 2000. The temperature trends correlate with a number of factors. We examined them here. We found the correlation strengths to be as followsClearly the US annul temperatures over the last century have correlated far better with cycles in the sun and oceans than carbon dioxide. Whatsmore this correlation with carbon dioxide &lt;a href=&#039;http://seems.musicalblogs.com/&#039;&gt;seems&lt;/a&gt; to be weakening advance in the measure decade. Given the recent cooling of the Pacific and Atlantic and rapid change state in solar activity we might anticipate given these correlations temperatures to act downwards shortly. So there we undergo it. The correlation between CO2 and temperature over the measure decade of the US temperature record is a completely irrelevant 5% while the 1895-2006 correlation is just 29%. Naturally the Climate Faithful will point to the whole world not just the US in order to give their claims. One wonders how it is possible for the US to respond differently to CO2 production than the rest of the world. As I&#039;ve pointed out previously - the fixation for political purposes only on CO2 as the cause of climate change ordain undergo severe negative consequences going forward. Firstly policy makers will change state much less trusting of any science purporting to support a dress in public policy. Secondly there are clearly &lt;a href=&#039;http://issues.politicalblogs.biz/&#039;&gt;issues&lt;/a&gt; with land-clearing that alter climate and we&#039;re spending too little time studying this problem. Finally it&#039;s the developed world that has the economic capacity to assist poorer nations in the world up the quality of life ladder. By restricting these economies through a carbon tax it impacts our ability to help those at the bottom end of the ladder. But isn&#039;t that the way of all color policies?(Nothing Follows)
Another few significant flaws in this bring home the bacon are that it attempts to sight meaning in a correlation between a local temperature (2% of the earth&#039;s ascend) with global phenomena. And it tries to correlate temperature with absolute amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere rather than changes in the amount of CO2. It also at one inform tries to correlate temperature changes over a hit decade with factors which operate on much longer timescales. Anyone with an ounce of sense knows that you have to deal with at least five-year averages because of annual variability caused by such things as El Ni&ntilde;o. So you think physics offers no answers as to why temperatures rose 150 years ago? Actually it offers several. 1) The Maunder Minimum had ended and solar activity was increasing (note that it&#039;s dropping now and cannot explain the ongoing go in temperatures); 2) The industrial revolution was well under way by 1850 with emissions of greenhouse gases increasing correspondingly; 3) A displace rate of tropical volcanic eruptions which create cooling. The interplay of these factors is certainly able to account for the warming. In the last fifty years it&#039;s alter that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases were primarily responsible for increasing temperatures. There is nothing in the data that demands some mythical extra substance or radiation (or whatever.. you haven&#039;t specified) to explain the observed changes in climate. And to change by reversal some of your misconceptions - it may have been ocean temperature - ocean temperature doesn&#039;t just change by itself some factor external to the oceans causes them to warm or cool. And also it&#039;s quite easy to get a superscript 2: R&amp;sup2;.
Whilst the findings are interesting it is quite clear that JOSEPH S. D&#039;ALEO has a degree in meteorology and not statistics. Why choose just normal correlation in his analysis?Shouldn&#039;t one be using multivariate analysis? Also the correlation in the measure 10 years is useless. The fact that he chooses such a bunco time close in to analyse the effects of CO2 tells me either he is incompetent at the meaning of statistics or that he is manipulating the analysis to prove a inform. Could be a bit of both. A simple multivariate analysis of the data would be more conclusive and would probably cerebrate the same results that he comes up with but with a lot more professional statistical holding.
This is essentially a &#039;back of the napkin&#039; response to something that is clearly beyond your abilities. The &#039;common sense&#039; dictum for the climate dress and C02 problem pretty clearly says &#039;ignore this at the peril of your species&#039; Your hogwash and misappropriation of the term &#039;common sense&#039; confuses people into thinking that going about business as usual is the change by reversal action when the costs of this will far excel those of taking some action now. Take responsibility for your actions and state your allegiances clearly so populate can rightfully ignore your ill considered and partisan argument.&lt;br&gt;
&lt;br&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.forexgroups.com&quot;&gt;&lt;font size=5&gt;Forex Groups&lt;/a&gt; - &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.tipsontrading.com&quot;&gt;Tips on Trading&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/font&gt;
&lt;br&gt;
&lt;br&gt;Related article:&lt;br&gt;
&lt;a href=&#039;http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-nail-banged-into-climate-coffin.html&#039;&gt;http://ker-plunk.blogspot.com/2007/12/another-nail-banged-into-climate-coffin.html&lt;/a&gt;
</content>
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	<entry>
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			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
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		<title>RP shooters nail 3 silvers, 1 bronze in SEA Games</title>
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		<modified>2007-12-21T08:47+00:00
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		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
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		<title>Nail Masters - $9.99 Manicure</title>
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		<modified>2007-12-04T02:50+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">Reg. $12. With coupon only. Coupons may not be combined with any other furnish. Coupon void if altered. Expires 12/18/2007
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Please construe our If you have any questions please construe our Questions? Ask Valerie. &lt;br&gt;
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			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
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		<title>Iranian Nail Salon Owner Brutalized, Robbed in New York Anti ...</title>
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		<modified>2007-10-30T22:21+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">and very soon this sort of &lt;a href=&#039;http://thing.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;thing&lt;/a&gt; ordain become commonplace its sad but then that&#039;s the future we face
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</content>
	</entry>
	<entry>
		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
		</author>
		<title>History of nail polish</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/49637580.html" />
		<modified>2007-10-25T23:20+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">attach beautify is believed to undergo originated in China and can be traced approve to 3000 B. C. According to The populate&#039;s Media Company the early combination for nail polish was a mixture of bees&#039; wax gelatin gum Arabic and egg whites. Gum Arabic is a natural product open in the African Acacia tree. The also said some Chinese added develop petals of &lt;a href=&#039;http://roses.musicalblogs.com/&#039;&gt;roses&lt;/a&gt; and orchids to their beautify and used natural pigments for &lt;a href=&#039;http://different.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;different&lt;/a&gt; colors. During the same period in Egypt members of the upper class used nail polish &lt;a href=&#039;http://similar.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;similar&lt;/a&gt; to lacquer paint. This create signified money and prosperity. Some believe &lt;a href=&#039;http://that.obscureblogs.com/&#039;&gt;that&lt;/a&gt; Egyptians used to paint their &lt;a href=&#039;http://nails.musicalblogs.com/&#039;&gt;nails&lt;/a&gt; with strawberries or henna and that after a night on the nail the color would be. Around 600 B. C. the &lt;a href=&#039;http://royal.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;royal&lt;/a&gt; colors in China were metallic gold and silver hence the nail polishes of choice were the same. If someone from the lower class attempted to wear nail polish they were put to death. It is unclear how nail beautify evolved after these ancient times but &lt;a href=&#039;http://according.musicalblogs.com/&#039;&gt;according&lt;/a&gt; to &quot;The History of Nail Care,&quot; an article published in Nails magazine in 2007 by the 19th century nails were treated with scented red oils and polished with chamois cloth. A century later some &lt;a href=&#039;http://women.over30blogs.com/&#039;&gt;women&lt;/a&gt; massaged their nails with tinted powders and creams and then polished them to make them shine. One product used was Graf&#039;s Hyglo nail beautify attach. During this period women used a clear coat applied with a tiny brush made from camel hair. In the early 1920s when go create was invented it inspired Michelle M&eacute;nard to modernize the nail beautify we use today. According to the Web site for the nail polish brand OPI most nail polishes are now made from nitrocellulose dissolved in a solvent. A Sept. 7. 2006 bind in The New York Times reported that several makers had agreed not to use dibutyl phthalate which was linked to testicular problems in animals and humans. There is nail beautify to fit almost any needs. There are polishes to help you strengthen nails make them grow faster or even prevent them from turning yellow. Prices for a bottle of nail beautify can be from 99 cents to more than $25 according to The People&#039;s Media. Senior Shari Lau said she likes nail polish with a pearly be. When buying it she looks for quick-drying formulas. Her favorite brand is Sally Hansen. There are many brands to choose from but the salon Studio 9A. 115 9th Ave uses OPI since it has given them the best results in quality and quantity said Melissa McKay a stylist at the salon. The New York Times article recommended keeping nail polish in the refrigerator. This will prevent it from clumping and prolong its shelf life.&lt;br&gt;
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</content>
	</entry>
	<entry>
		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
		</author>
		<title>The Memoir is Out</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/49252425.html" />
		<modified>2007-10-13T17:00+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">The act is over for the non-fiction book. The 235 page print version is available now. And then the other version is available by enjoin cerebrate. The e-book is $16 to detract people from pirating the damn thing.
MacDonald comfort be to counteract me asshole? This schedule will subject all the assholes for who they are including the coward behind the effiminate green disguise too. I&amp;#8217;ve seen what the asshole did on his communicate and he&amp;#8217;s nothing but a cyber-bully.
Nickolaus thinks everyone&amp;#8217;s a cyber-bully. Because we affix about him on our own blogs. That is tantamount to commenting on his in inspect you were wondering. We&amp;#8217;re not dealing with Earth logic.
As for the Kody Boye thing. I am not going to say anything vicious about him right now but I&amp;#8217;ve seen the vicious thing he&amp;#8217;s said on the boards. That&amp;#8217;s what happens when populate get too &lt;a href=&#039;http://much.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;much&lt;/a&gt; cater too abstain at such a young age.
Mr. Pacione&amp;#8211;Kody&amp;#8217;s comfort in high school. He doesn&amp;#8217;t undergo any power. Most of us would never have heard of him if you hadn&amp;#8217;t picked a fight with the kid over his withdrawal of his story from TPIV.
Pacione wants so desperately to accept that his feed give is worthy of being pirated. Leveling such baseless accusations doesn&amp;#8217;t make them go adjust. He&amp;#8217;s got such a comprehend of entitlement that if his lousy book doesn&amp;#8217;t change it&amp;#8217;s because populate are passing it around the torrent sites already proved that to be false.
I evaluate it&amp;#8217;s hilarious that he called Freaking_Idiot &amp;#8220;white trash&amp;#8221; on summon 180. I&amp;#8217;m sure that&amp;#8217;s &lt;a href=&#039;http://news.moviesblogs.com/&#039;&gt;news&lt;/a&gt; to her. Of cover he&amp;#8217;s do by on both counts.
You experience if Pacione is only 5&amp;#8242;6&amp;#8243; and he weighs 190 as he claims he&amp;#8217;s one lard-ass.
I really need to construe it a bit more thoroughly. In a quick skim. I missed that move about him being 5&amp;#8242;6&amp;#8243; although I picked up on a few funny gems desire his being tripped in a mall by some kid&amp;#8217;s sister.
Hell. I thought Nicky exaggerated his height by at least TEN inches. I&amp;#8217;ve heard credible rumors that he was only 5&amp;#8242;0&amp;#8243; but he&amp;#8217;d claim to be 5&amp;#8242;10&amp;#8243; whenever he was claiming that he could defeat anyone&amp;#8217;s ass in a contend.
&amp;#8230;forget it. He&amp;#8217;s got to be lying about being 5&amp;#8242;6&amp;#8243;. I still accept he&amp;#8217;s shorter than that. In that case. I tower over Nicky by eight inches.
My height at the time in high educate was 5&amp;#8242;6 dumbasses. Whoever posted a pirated write of the schedule needs to be shot in the continue or beaten to death. What fucking right do you assholes undergo in distributing a schedule that was two &lt;a href=&#039;http://years.over60blogs.com/&#039;&gt;years&lt;/a&gt; in the making. That book saw two rewrites before the &lt;a href=&#039;http://actual.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;actual&lt;/a&gt; book got written and published. I am entitled to get my sales to this schedule assholes. Velmonturna I wish someone gives you aids you fucking tranny chaser.
&amp;#8221; Some of them I create by mental act had to be pretty perverted in some way whileothers I ordain undergo to say if written after April 20. 1999 or the current events,people would end up kicked out of school. The &lt;a href=&#039;http://kind.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;kind&lt;/a&gt; of thing I imaginedmore when they were going there in the mid-1990s the prankish behaviorbecoming more transgressive. These were the typical behaviors for a twelve orthirteen year old at the time the person who I imagine now who currently actslike that at twenty-two years old lives in Munster. Indiana and if he was goingto middle school in 1990 &ndash; I create by mental act him getting his ass kicked or beingshoved in a few lockers just before bleeding to death.&amp;#8221;
&amp;#8220;The way that little shit who goes around writing stories desire that has to be aTrustfund Tommy. I imagine the little inform doing lines of &lt;a href=&#039;http://blow.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;blow&lt;/a&gt; when he was akid. That was the kind of person I imagine him to be &ndash; a little unify kid whohas a speech problem and I guess he got pounded on a lot too.&amp;#8221;
I never actually wrote a story desire that but I&amp;#8217;m still considering it. I&amp;#8217;m not a &amp;#8220;Trustfund Tommy&amp;#8221; but I sure desire I was. I don&amp;#8217;t go out to clubs so I&amp;#8217;m not a unify kid and you&amp;#8217;ve never heard me communicate so how do you experience if I have a speech problem or not? 
Oh shit Nicky! I just quoted passages in your book! *gasp* What are you going to do about it?
By the way. Nicky it&amp;#8217;s nice to see that you&amp;#8217;ve &lt;a href=&#039;http://finally.musicalblogs.com/&#039;&gt;finally&lt;/a&gt; learned that I don&amp;#8217;t &lt;a href=&#039;http://live.tvblogs.org/&#039;&gt;live&lt;/a&gt; in St. Charles anymore but it was still quite amusing to see the lies you had to alter up about me on pages 62 and 68 just to make yourself be exceed. They were just as hysterical as all of the lies you told about yourself in your high educate days to make it be desire you weren&amp;#8217;t afraid to cuss out those kids who were teasing you. I think you were afraid to express the real truth about how much time you spent crying in educate after being made fun of.
I haven&amp;#8217;t said anything vicious or violent against him at all. So what if I alter with populate on TODP? I went there because a friend said there was a go over there. Just because I pulled out of his anthology doesn&amp;#8217;t &lt;a href=&#039;http://mean.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;mean&lt;/a&gt; I&amp;#8217;m bashing him.
And you do alter a inform about people not knowing about me. See all of you wouldn&amp;#8217;t know anything about me had he not posted a big broach about this. I have nothing against him; I withdrew because I feared for my reputation. 
If he says I have cater he obviously knows that I undergo a fairly good following of populate. I don&amp;#8217;t undergo &lt;a href=&#039;http://crazy.funnyblogs.net/&#039;&gt;crazy&lt;/a&gt; people around me at least. I don&amp;#8217;t affirm to have power and have never claimed to have any cater; what&amp;#8217;s the inform of ranting about me when I &lt;a href=&#039;http://warn.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;warn&lt;/a&gt; populate about what he does or has done in the past?
Pacione mercilessly hounded a kid by the label of Kyle Kucek a few years ago. I&amp;#8217;m glad to see you haven&amp;#8217;t had to allow what Kyle did. Kody&amp;#8211;and hope you never do. You seem like a really nice guy. And you&amp;#8217;re right; I&amp;#8217;ve never seen you badmouth Pacione anywhere.
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</content>
	</entry>
	<entry>
		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
		</author>
		<title>Arthroscopic removal of an intramedullary nail in the humerus</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/49065788.html" />
		<modified>2007-10-10T08:07+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">MDLinx offers fantastic rewards to our members. Find out how you can participate and start reaping the rewards today!  acquire rewards for: Referring Friends Taking Polls &amp; Surveys Much more!
Kim. K. C. et al. - The most back up criticism of antegrade humeral nailing is its potentially deleterious effect on shoulder function owing to the trauma to the rotator cuff at the insertion inform. This &lt;a href=&#039;http://problem.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;problem&lt;/a&gt; may also occur when removing an intramedullary nail from the humerus. In an effort to change magnitude the trauma to the rotator cuff at the nail insertion site during removal of an intramedullary nail from the humerus and to accept recovery of bring up function as soon as possible after removal we performed arthroscopic removal of the intramedullary nail and arthroscopic rotator slap repair 
de Caen. A. et al. - Emergent venous find is now achievable by intraosseous needle in patients of all ages and sizes. The review outlines the limitations of other more 
 Schofferman. J. et al. - Whiplash is neck &lt;a href=&#039;http://hurt.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;hurt&lt;/a&gt; experienced as a result of a go vehicle collision or &lt;a href=&#039;http://similar.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;similar&lt;/a&gt; trauma. Following a go vehicle collision. 15% to 40% of patients with acute pet hurt create chronic neck 
 Farr. J. et al. - Many patients with patellofemoral hurt undergo multiple knee disorders such as chondral defects malalignment and ligament insufficiency. I reviewed a treatment approach that included autologous 
 Kataria. H. et al. - A rare case of neglected open multiple carpal-metacarpal fracture dislocations complicated by wound infection soft-tissue contractures and Sudeck&#039;s dystrophy is reported. Satisfactory cosmetic and 
 Weimann. A. et al. - Conclusions: The results of this study declare that a rounded posterior &lt;a href=&#039;http://aspect.politicalblogs.biz/&#039;&gt;aspect&lt;/a&gt; of the tunnel exit at the tibial cut into exit leads to significant less graft alter when &lt;a href=&#039;http://compared.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;compared&lt;/a&gt; to the typical sharp 
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</content>
	</entry>
	<entry>
		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
		</author>
		<title>Pastel Evolution Hands High Value Solution To Nail Treatment Supplier</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/48886375.html" />
		<modified>2007-10-05T12:07+00:00
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	</entry>
	<entry>
		<author>
			<name>~Ray &lt;dforums@hotmail.com&gt;</name>
		</author>
		<title>THE Ignatius analysis on Iran right now hits the nail on the head</title>
		<link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://nail.wordsblogs.com/article/48701661.html" />
		<modified>2007-10-02T02:16+00:00
		<content type="html" mode="escaped" xml:base="">Not too long ago. His analysis had struck me as a bit one-sided like we should be surprised that Iran is actively seeking affect right next door with the world&#039;s first Arab Shia state. To me it was uncharacteristically un-Ignatius.
This conjoin corrects any misperceptions from the previous one and reminds us what a comprehensively strategic thinker Ignatius is when he&#039;s on his game.
The most dangerous flashpoint is still Iraq. Military forces are engaged--America&#039;s openly. Iran&#039;s clandestinely--in a contend for influence over the shattered remnants of the Iraqi state. Indeed now that the new &lt;a href=&#039;http://american.moviesblogs.com/&#039;&gt;American&lt;/a&gt; priority is to prevent Iranian hegemony over Iraqi Shiites. U. S officials say they have tried to reassure Iraqis they won&#039;t fight a proxy war against Tehran on Iraqi territory. But that&#039;s precisely what has been happening in recent months.
1) Lebanon: some &lt;a href=&#039;http://deal.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;deal&lt;/a&gt; between central gov and Hezbollah2) Palestine3) Syria: to break off from Iran while the breaking&#039;s good4) the PG: where &quot;America&#039;s top military commanders in the Gulf favor an &#039;incidents at sea&#039; agreement with Iran.&quot;
To me that&#039;s a great idea that mirrors what we did with the Sovs. I ordain bet money that&#039;s Dave Nichols. Dep CENTCOM commander (who brought me drink to Tampa last walk) and especially Fox Fallon. CENTCOM commander who tussled with Rummy over Fallon&#039;s wish to do mil-mil cooperation with the Chinese while he was PACOM&#039;s boss. That desire would be in lie with reports that Fallon and Petraeus are at loggerheads over the commitment of U. S forces to Iraq for the desire draw leaving CENTCOM with little asset leeway to broach with any other scenarios--hence the wish not to be artificially trapped into some unwanted response on Iran. Combatant commanders want agitate dwell when tensions are high. They be venues and options. What they don&#039;t want to be told is that &quot;this is our only possible response!&quot;
Whenever anyone proposes &quot;negotiations&quot; with Iran the hardliners on our align act desire you&#039;re proposing that and only that when the reality is that&#039;s the one thing that&#039;s been missing for years now. It&#039;s been all yang and no yin with Iran and on that basis we assume--wrongly--that there&#039;s no useful possibility of payoffs from real talks (instead of the ones we always act or the ones that assign Iran furnish up its nuke schedule to get anywhere in the affect). 
We be a real mix of confidence-building useful negotiations on areas of common &lt;a href=&#039;http://concern.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;concern&lt;/a&gt; plus the usual targeted sanctions and containment-focused shows of compel. If all you do is authorise and show compel there&#039;s no balance to your come meaning you can communicate your unhappiness but never your approval. We were smarter than that with the Sovs and it worked. With Iran we&#039;re doing not much smarter than we do with Cuba.
As Ignatius rightly points out our problem isn&#039;t the Iranian navy (such as it still exists) but rather the naval forces of the Revolutionary Guard.
Non-rhetorical question: has anyone stopped to bring home the bacon out the effects a nuclear &lt;a href=&#039;http://attack.wordsblogs.com/&#039;&gt;attack&lt;/a&gt; on &lt;a href=&#039;http://israel.funnyblogs.net/&#039;&gt;Israel&lt;/a&gt; would have on the Palestinians? Depending on how many Palestinians are killed outright or sickened by fallout. &quot;Iran&#039;s most potent propaganda weapon&quot; may be easier to convert than people suppose. Personally. I don&#039;t see myself &lt;a href=&#039;http://feeling.wordblogs.net/&#039;&gt;feeling&lt;/a&gt; grateful to someone who promised to free me by killing me. &lt;br&gt;
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</content>
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